2026 Market Outlook
Positioning the U.S. in a deglobalizing,
AI-driven world
After an unpredictable 2025 marked by tariffs, market volatility and the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, 2026 has begun with new momentum. Economic growth is firming and likely will accelerate and policy shifts are largely behind us. Yet the landscape is far from simple.
Our 2026 Annual Outlook explores how the U.S. is repositioning itself in a deglobalizing world, why AI and energy capacity will define the next decade of growth and where investors may find opportunities as global markets evolve.
The U.S. economy
U.S. economic growth is expected to rebound in 2026, with GDP around 2% when adjusted for inflation. A stabilizing job market, rising real incomes and continued business investment—particularly in AI, datacenters, manufacturing and power infrastructure—should support steady, durable expansion.
International
Deglobalization is continuing, as nations reorganize supply chains through reshoring and friend shoring, while geopolitical alignments continue to shift. These structural changes may introduce inefficiencies, yet they also present new regional opportunities in manufacturing, energy and technology.
Energy and AI
Energy—specifically, access to reliable, affordable power—is foundational to both economic growth and the accelerating AI build out. Natural gas is likely to remain the most practical near term baseload source, while nuclear energy may grow in strategic importance over the next decade. For businesses and investors, the convergence of energy and AI likely will create both opportunities and risks that shape long term competitiveness.
Meet our experts
BOK Financial's experts share their diverse knowledge to break down complex topics, provide timely updates on the state of our economy and dig into industry trends. Get to know these interesting individuals representing just some of our company's areas of expertise.
J. Brian Henderson, CFA
Chief Investment OfficerJ. Brian Henderson is responsible for leading the Alternative Investments group, Strategic Investment Advisors, and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc.
read bio
Steve Wyett, CFA
Chief Investment StrategistSteve M. Wyett, CFA is responsible for tracking and communicating about economic indicators affecting the investment climate and overseeing BOK Financial's investment management message.
read bio
Matthew Stephani, CFA
President, Cavanal Hill Investment ManagementMatt Stephani is a successful, highly motivated financial markets professional with 20 years of experience managing public equities across all sectors.
read bio